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Fitch lowers expectations for Egypt’s real GDP growth to 5%

Fitch also noted that gas production expansion will push Egypt’s headline growth

By: Business Today Egypt

Tue, Apr. 20, 2021

Fitch Solutions’ expectations for Egypt’s GDP growth has dwindled a bit, now predicting 2.9 percent compared to the 3 percent forecasted in January, in their latest report.

Deputy Head of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions Julie Beckenstein said the slowdown in vaccine rollout and the delay in the tourism sector’s recovery are the main reasons behind revising down Egypt’s economic growth during a webinar organized by Fitch Solutions yesterday.

Read more from Fitch > Egyptian banks to see more pressure from pandemic effects: Fitch Ratings

Fitch also lowered Egypt’s real GDP growth for FY2021/2022 down to 5 percent, compared to previously predicted 5.6 percent noted in December 2020.

“The Central Bank of Egypt’s (CBE) monetary easing of 400 bps last year, as well as expanded fiscal spending and well-executed stimulus policies, helped to cushion the economic blow of the pandemic,” MENA country risk analyst Selim Elbadri said during the webinar.  

The webinar was joined by an updated report on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region’s economic outlook.

Fitch also noted that gas production expansion will push Egypt’s headline growth.

Related > BNP Paribas forecasts economic growth of 5.3% for FY 2021/2022

The international ratings agency did highlight that the tourism sector’s recovery is expected to drive medium-term growth, and will provide critical support for the country’s economic growth.

In February, Minister of Tourism Khaled El-Anani stated that tourism numbers were at between 270K and 290K tourists on average per month in the previous three months.

In late March, Fitch did note that Egypt would be among five emerging markets expected not to see recovery in their tourism sector in 2021.