A Reuters poll has forecast that the Egyptian pound will strengthen to 49 against the U.S. dollar by the end of June 2027. The survey also showed that expectations for Egypt’s economic growth have remained broadly stable over the past three months, as concerns over the impact of the war in the Middle East have eased. Inflation forecasts for the coming years, however, were revised upward.

According to the median forecast of 15 economists surveyed by Reuters between July 7 and 16, Egypt’s economy is expected to have grown by 4.8% in the 2025–2026 fiscal year, up from the 4.6% projected in the previous poll conducted in April.

Respondents expect economic growth to slow to 4.5% in the 2026–2027 fiscal year before accelerating to 5.3% in 2027–2028 and 5.5% in 2028–2029.

Official data showed that Egypt’s economy expanded by 5% during the January–March 2026 quarter, exceeding expectations despite supply-chain disruptions and higher oil prices resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

In May, the Central Bank of Egypt forecast average real GDP growth of around 5% for the fiscal year ending in June 2026, compared with an earlier projection of 4.9%.

Analysts expect the Egyptian pound to trade at around 49 per U.S. dollar by the end of the 2026–2027 fiscal year, compared with a previous forecast of 51.5 and the current exchange rate of approximately 50.6 pounds per dollar. The revised estimate reflects a more optimistic outlook for the currency’s stability.

Dominic Bartos, an associate economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the Egyptian economy remained in an expansionary phase and had weathered the external shock better than expected in March. However, he warned that continued uncertainty could place pressure on exports and investment in the coming period.

The poll pointed to a continued improvement in Egypt’s macroeconomic indicators, supported by a 31.2% increase in remittances from Egyptians working abroad. Remittances reached approximately $43.1 billion between July 2025 and May 2026, compared with around $32.8 billion during the corresponding period a year earlier.

Tourism revenues and Suez Canal receipts also continued to recover, while Egypt’s foreign-exchange reserves rose to $55 billion by the end of June 2026.

In June, the International Monetary Fund announced that it had reached a staff-level agreement with Egypt on the fifth and sixth reviews of the country’s economic reform programme. The agreement could unlock an additional $1.6 billion in financing. The IMF said the impact of the war on the Egyptian economy had remained “relatively contained.”

By contrast, economists raised their forecast for average inflation in the 2026–2027 fiscal year to 13.5%, compared with the 12% projected in April. Inflation is then expected to decline to 10.4% in 2027–2028 and 8.6% in 2028–2029.

The upward revision came despite a slowdown in annual urban inflation to 14.3% in June.

The Reuters poll also forecast that the Central Bank of Egypt’s overnight lending rate would fall to 16% by the end of the 2026–2027 fiscal year, down from the current rate of 20%. This is lower than the previous poll’s forecast of 17%.