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AfDB lowers expectations for Egyptian growth for 2024 to 3.7%

Egypt’s economic growth is expected to slightly narrow in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), dropping from an estimated 4% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024

Mon, Feb. 19, 2024

 

Egypt’s economic growth is expected to slightly narrow in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), dropping from an estimated 4% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024.

In its latest Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook report, the bank attributed the decline to high inflation and the foreign currency shortage, adding that the “Middle East war poses a security risk to Egypt that could reduce tourism inflows”.

On Inflation, the AfDB forecasted Egypt’s inflation rate to jump to 27.7% in the next fiscal year (FY2024/2025), noting that inflation increased to above 20% in 2023.

Egypt’s current account balance is expected to rise to 2.4% of GDP and its fiscal balance to fall to 6.5% of GDP in the coming FY.

Regionally, the AfDB projected growth to stabilize at 3.9% in 2024, with a small 0.2% bump to 4.1% in 2025.

On foreign direct investments (FDIs), the bank highlighted that Egypt accounted for 75.8% of North Africa’s FDI in 2022, when the country reported that FDIs had more than doubled to $11.4 billion, driven by increasing cross-border mergers and acquisitions.

The AfDB noted that Egyptian expats’ remittances, mainly from Gulf countries, accounted for 68% of remittances sent to North Africa in 2022.

Africa's economic growth fell to 3.2% in 2023 from 4.1% in 2022, with the African Development Bank predicting an uptick in growth for all regions, excluding Central Africa. The AfDB narrowed its growth expectations for Central and North Africa, citing a recession in regional oil producer Equatorial Guinea and the aftermath of devastating flooding in Libya.

The AfDB’s Africa Infrastructure Development Index revealed that Egypt was the 3rd top countries in terms of progress between 2021 to 2022. The index, which provides consolidated and comparative information on the status and progress of infrastructure development in African countries (transport, electricity, information and communication technology, water supply and sanitation), placed Egypt with a 1.17 score.  The top 2 were South Africa (1.48 improvement) and Morocco (1.23).

Egypt’s economic growth is expected to slightly narrow in 2024, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB), dropping from an estimated 4% in 2023 to 3.7% in 2024.

In its latest Africa’s Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook report, the bank attributed the decline to high inflation and the foreign currency shortage, adding that the “Middle East war poses a security risk to Egypt that could reduce tourism inflows”.

On Inflation, the AfDB forecasted Egypt’s inflation rate to jump to 27.7% in the next fiscal year (FY2024/2025), noting that inflation increased to above 20% in 2023.

Egypt’s current account balance is expected to rise to 2.4% of GDP and its fiscal balance to fall to 6.5% of GDP in the coming FY.

Regionally, the AfDB projected growth to stabilize at 3.9% in 2024, with a small 0.2% bump to 4.1% in 2025.

On foreign direct investments (FDIs), the bank highlighted that Egypt accounted for 75.8% of North Africa’s FDI in 2022, when the country reported that FDIs had more than doubled to $11.4 billion, driven by increasing cross-border mergers and acquisitions.

The AfDB noted that Egyptian expats’ remittances, mainly from Gulf countries, accounted for 68% of remittances sent to North Africa in 2022.

Africa's economic growth fell to 3.2% in 2023 from 4.1% in 2022, with the African Development Bank predicting an uptick in growth for all regions, excluding Central Africa. The AfDB narrowed its growth expectations for Central and North Africa, citing a recession in regional oil producer Equatorial Guinea and the aftermath of devastating flooding in Libya.

The AfDB’s Africa Infrastructure Development Index revealed that Egypt was the 3rd top countries in terms of progress between 2021 to 2022. The index, which provides consolidated and comparative information on the status and progress of infrastructure development in African countries (transport, electricity, information and communication technology, water supply and sanitation), placed Egypt with a 1.17 score.  The top 2 were South Africa (1.48 improvement) and Morocco (1.23).