The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its forecast for Egypt's real GDP growth for 2023, lowering it to 4.2% from its previous prediction in February. It also raised its 2024 expectation to 5.2%, up from the previous estimate of 5% in February.

The EBRD released these updates in its Regional Economic Prospects report during its annual meetings held in Uzbekistan.

For the current fiscal year 2022/2023, the report anticipates Egypt's real GDP growth to be at 4% and expects it to rebound to 4.8% in the following fiscal year 2023/2024.

According to the report, factors contributing to the positive outlook include increased gas exports, Egypt's role as an energy hub in the eastern Mediterranean, and the implementation of business-environment reforms supported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). These reforms focus on empowering the private sector, promoting competition, and addressing fiscal and external vulnerabilities.

The report highlights that Egypt's real GDP growth slowed to 4.2% in the first half (1H) of the current fiscal year 2022/23 (July-December 2022), a significant decline compared to the 9% growth recorded in the same period of the previous fiscal year.

The EBRD noted that the slowdown was driven by a decline in the manufacturing and construction sectors due to foreign currency shortages, and reduced Suez Canal and tourism revenues.