Inflation in Egypt is expected to average between 13 and 14% in 2026, with a temporary acceleration toward the mid-teens by the end of the year, reaching around 16 to 17% in November and December, according to Badr Al Saraf, Head of Macro Strategy for the Middle East at Standard Chartered.
He said during the bank's Global Research Briefing, attended by Business Today Egypt, the inflation path reflects continued price pressures in the near term, before gradually easing as monetary transmission strengthens and macroeconomic conditions stabilize.
Al Saraf noted that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) continues to prioritize inflation as the main policy anchor, closely monitoring the impact of interest rates on price dynamics and overall demand.
He added that interest rates are expected to remain on hold in the near term, allowing policymakers to assess the full transmission of previous tightening measures.
He also indicated that a sustained return to single-digit inflation is unlikely in the short term, with normalization expected only toward the end of 2027.
Al Saraf said the inflation trajectory presents fiscal challenges, but continues to support Egypt’s attractiveness to investors seeking high yields in emerging markets, particularly in the current global environment where carry trade dynamics remain strong.
