By Mike Ayyash

Rumors and misinformation about avian flu in Egypt abounded last month. Even poultry prices across the country crashed when the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization warned that the H5N1 bird flu strain is likely to hit North Africa and the Middle East when potentially infected birds migrate from Europe for the winter.

Although there are no signs the virus has yet transferred to Egyptian bird stocks, a senior Western diplomat says 1 in 10 migratory birds in Egypt tested by an agency funded by his government are turning up positive for bird flu. The official did not specify whether these results supported findings of H5N1 or another flu strain. An official at another Western embassy in Cairo said H5N1 crossing over into domestic poultry stocks would be “an economic disaster.”

“People feel that it’s inevitable,” Ken Earhart, executive officer of the United States’ Naval Medical Research Unit (NAMRU) in Cairo, told French news agency AFP. “It’s more a ‘when’ than an ‘if.’ As the migratory season progresses, the Middle East will become more threatened while Europe will be less at risk.”

The laboratory conducts infectious disease research and analyzes biological samples from all over the region. Despite repeated attempts to arrange an interview, no NAMRU officials were available for comment by press time.

Earhart told AFP the research unit has not found any evidence of the H5N1 strain moving into the Middle East so far, and the World Health Organization (WHO) is telling people not to panic. But his comments came before the Western diplomat said test results were coming up positive for bird flu in migratory birds —and before Kuwait became the first Arab nation to confirm a case of H5N1.

“Of course there should be no panic, but people should be on a state of alert that this could become a serious problem; that’s why every country is preparing its plans of action.”

“Health-wise, so far nothing has been discovered in Egypt,” says Ibrahim El-Kerdany, spokesperson for the WHO’s Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean in Cairo. “The closest were the two birds [migratory wild flamingo found in early November] that were discovered in Kuwait, and only one of them turned out to be H5N1 [positive]. Of course there should be no panic, but people should be on a state of alert that this could become a serious problem; that’s why every country is preparing its plans of action.”

Some consumers, though, appear to be taking no chances. Poultry farmers and producers in Egypt say they have noticed a slump in sales — and fear an outbreak of bird flu in the country could be catastrophic for the industry.

“We have noticed a drop in sales that started ten days ago [on November 11],” says Ramzi El-Nasrallah, vice-president at the poultry integrator Wadi Holdings, which sells live chicks to farmers. “It’s not a [significant] drop in sales as much as it is a drop in prices because Egypt is primarily a live market.”

El-Nasrallah says 70% of chickens sold in Egypt are moved through small distributors, where the consumer goes to an outlet and chooses a live bird, which is then killed and cleaned right in front of him.

He says price volatility is very high in live markets because any imbalances between supply and demand cause prices to fluctuate drastically. Live birds cannot be stored until prices improve, so when small distributors perceive a slight drop in demand, they overcompensate on their purchasing so that they are not stuck with livestock that they cannot move.

The industry veteran says poultry farmers and producers are the ones who are suffering the most, and that live market prices have dropped 30.9% from LE 5.5 per kilogram to a low of LE 3.8 per kilogram.

“Bird flu has had an effect, but we believe there are other factors,” says El-Nasrallah.

Demand for chicken usually decreases after Ramadan, he says, because people spend heavily on lavish meals during the Holy Month and tend to cut back to normal expenditure afterwards. Still, El-Nasrallah maintains that paranoia about bird flu has played a big part in the decrease in prices and demand, a contention that others in the retail sector dismiss.

“Overall, we haven’t felt any negative impact on sales,” says Mohanad Adly, managing director of Metro, the nation’s leading supermarket chain. “There is, of course, right now, a slight dip in the chicken sales at Metro, but that is actually quite normal at this time of year. Normally, what happens is that throughout Ramadan people usually consume a lot of meat and chicken. After Ramadan, the sales drop because people prefer to go to fish. If you look at the same period last year, it’s the exact same [story].”

Adly remains unconcerned, saying that even if the bird flu were to hit Egypt, the resulting drop in chicken sales at retail stores would be offset by an increase in meat sales.

In the meantime, the WHO stresses that there is no danger in eating poultry if it is well cooked, generally at 70 degrees Celsius for half an hour.

“This is a new virus, and it has managed to move very fast among poultry and affect people who deal with poultry,” El-Kerdany says. “The fear is that it could mutate and manage to move from human to human. This is our biggest fear — but it hasn’t happened yet.”

Egypt has set up observation posts to test migrating birds at more than 25 locations around the country, mainly in North Sinai and Fayoum. The Nazif government has also banned bird hunting and banned all imports of poultry products and by-products for three months.

El-Nasrallah believes that if nothing shows up in three months, the government should re-evaluate the decision to lengthen a ban that would hurt the export and local industries.

“There are other countries in the region who have also taken such decisions: since the poultry industry in Egypt exports 10-15% of its products, these products are finding their way again to the local market and they’re putting pressure on the prices,” he says. “I think the ban should be studied again because it can also indirectly affect the industry. A 3-month period is fine, but if we extend it, it could be a problem so I think the ban should be selective.”

He says after the ban period is over, Egypt should only ban imports from countries that have confirmed cases of bird flu.

All countries of the WHO’s Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office were scheduled to meet for a three-day conference in Cairo at the end of November to discuss the bird flu virus and preparations to deal with it if it breaks out in the region.

“In Egypt, the plans have been made,” says El-Kerdany. “The point is maybe we should rehearse these plans to make sure we will be able to execute them if needed.”

Still, some say Egypt is not prepared for a pandemic.

Although there is no vaccine for avian flu, many countries are stocking up on anti-influenza drugs that the WHO says “can reduce the severity and duration of illness caused by seasonal influenza.” The two main drugs are Tamiflu, manufactured by Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche Holding AG, and Relenza, from British-based GlaxoSmithKline PLC. There are fears of shortages, however, as Tamiflu supply dries up due to increased demand, and fears that poorer countries will not be able to afford to stock up.

The WHO’s pandemic alert system, which is divided into six phases of threat seriousness, was at phase 3 in November: “a new influenza virus subtype is causing disease in humans, but is not yet spreading efficiently and sustainably among humans.”

According to WHO figures, bird flu has killed 68 people out of 132 laboratory-confirmed cases in Vietnam, Cambodia, China, Thailand and Indonesia since December 2003.  bt